Mathematical modeling and simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The current pandemic is a great challenge for several research areas. In addition to virology research, mathematical models and simulations can be a valuable contribution to the understanding of the dynamics of the pandemic and can give recommendations to physicians and politicians. Based on actual data of people infected with COVID-19 from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), input parameters of mathematical models will be determined and applied. These parameters will be estimated for the UK, Italy, Spain, and Germany and used in an SI R-type model. As a basis for the model’s calibration, the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the named countries is used. Strategies for the commencing and ending of social and economic shutdown measures are discussed.