Do changing circulation types raise the frequency of summertime thunderstorms and large hail in Europe?

Abstract

We study the role of changes in circulation type frequency on the evolution of summertime thunderstorm and large hail frequency across Europe since 1950 until 2020 to find out if they are responsible for the changes that an additive regression convective hazard models model (AR-CHaMo) predicts to have happened. To define circulation types, the 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly field on each day was clustered into 14 distinct patterns using principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We show that lightning and hail occurrence, both observed and modeled by AR-CHaMo, strongly depend on the circulation type, with a higher frequency observed in poleward flow downstream of a trough and on the lee side of mountains. AR-CHaMo predicts strong increases in hail frequency across central parts of Europe to have occurred in the 1950-2020 period. During this period, changes in circulation type frequency are small and only significant for 2 of the 14 clusters. The trends in both lightning and hail frequency to be expected if they were solely determined by circulation patterns, are small, with typical values of 1%-3% per decade relative to the mean, whereas the trends expected by AR-CHaMo are on the order of 4%-10% in most areas. Across many regions, the sign of the changes does not agree in sign, in particular across European Russia where circulation types have become more favorable for lightning and hail, but a decreasing probability was modeled by AR-CHaMo. We conclude that changing circulation types are, in general, not responsible for changes in thunderstorm and hail frequency, which included the strong increase of conditions favorable for large hail in central Europe.