Arms Race or Innovation Race? Geopolitical AI Development

Abstract

China, the United States, and the European Union have spoken of a global competition surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI). There is widespread talk of an ‘AI Arms Race’. But what is the nature of this race? We argue that the arms race metaphor does not capture the dynamics of global competition in the AI sector. Instead, we propose the notion of a ‘geopolitical innovation race’ for technological leadership in a networked global economy. Based on an analysis of government documents, we find that actors (1) are open to both zero-sum and positive-sum approaches in AI development, (2) organise actor networks differently based on national innovation cultures, (3) prioritise economics and status next to security concerns, and (4) are open to how AI should be interpreted. Referring to the competitive race of AI research and development, the three technopoles perpetuate the geopoliticisation of innovation and intertwine security and economic interests.