Inconsistent shifts in warming and temperature variability are linked to reduced avian fitness

Abstract

As the climate has warmed, many birds have advanced their breeding timing. However, as climate change also changes temperature distributions, breeding earlier might increase nestling exposure to either extreme heat or cold. Here, we combine >300,000 breeding records from 24 North American birds with historical temperature data to understand how exposure to extreme temperatures has changed. Average spring temperature increased since 1950 but change in timing of extremes was inconsistent in direction and magnitude; thus, populations could not track both average and extreme temperatures. Relative fitness was reduced following heatwaves and cold snaps in 11 and 16 of 24 species, respectively. Latitudinal variation in sensitivity in three widespread species suggests that vulnerability to extremes at range limits may contribute to range shifts. Our results add to evidence demonstrating that understanding individual sensitivity and its links to population level processes is critical for predicting vulnerability to changing climates.