Power estimation of multiple two-state loads using a probabilistic non-intrusive approach

Abstract

This paper investigates a non-intrusive approach of retrieving electric space heater (ESH) power profiles from a residential aggregated signal. In cold-climate regions with heating appliances controlled by electronic thermostats, an accurate non-intrusive recognition of power profiles is a challenging task. Accordingly, a robust disaggregation approach based on the difference factorial hidden Markov model (DFHMM) and the Kronecker operation is contributed. The proposed method aims to uncover the underlying stochastic tow-state models of ESHs using their common prior knowledge. The major advantage of the developed load-monitoring architecture consists of modeling simplicity and inference as well as load-detection efficacy in the presence of perturbations from other unknown loads. The experimental results prove the effectiveness of the method in manipulating the challenging case of multiple two-state loads with a high event overlapping probability.