Computational modelling the impact of GLP-1 receptor agonists on botulinum toxin A: Evidence for reduced treatment durability across neurologic and aesthetic indications

Abstract

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) have transformed metabolic and aesthetic medicine, yet their potential influence on botulinum toxin type A (BoNT-A) pharmacodynamics remains unexplored. Using the AesthetiSIM™ microsimulation platform, a transparent, parameterized in-silico model was developed to estimate whether GLP-1–related changes in metabolism and neuromuscular recovery could alter toxin durability. Twenty-five thousand virtual patients were generated, representing two domains of BoNT-A use: chronic migraine (n = 20,000) and masseter prominence (n = 5000). Virtual subjects were randomly assigned to semaglutide, tirzepatide, liraglutide, dulaglutide, or control conditions, and simulated over one year under standardized 100-unit BoNT-A dosing. The framework incorporated three mechanistic domains—synaptic modulation via cAMP-PKA–mediated SNAP-25 phosphorylation, lean-mass reduction affecting diffusion kinetics, and systemic metabolic variability reflecting diabetic or rapid-weight-loss phenotypes. In chronic migraine, mean BoNT-A duration declined from 14.0 ± 2.3 weeks in controls to 12.6, 12.5, 12.2, and 11.8 weeks across GLP-1 exposures (all p < 0.001; hazard ratio range 1.54–1.95). In masseter prominence, mean duration decreased from 20.1 ± 2.9 weeks to 17.3, 17.0, 16.7, and 16.2 weeks, with hazard ratios 1.72–2.08. Early wear-off and uncovered symptomatic periods rose proportionally across agents, with the hierarchy tirzepatide > liraglutide > dulaglutide > semaglutide. Sensitivity analyses indicated that approximately 55 % of the reduction in duration was attributable to synaptic modulation, 30 % to lean-mass decline, and 15 % to metabolic variability. These findings suggest a biologically plausible interaction between GLP-1 signalling and BoNT-A recovery dynamics. The results are exploratory and derive entirely from computational modelling rather than clinical observation. Experimental validation—such as neuronal culture assays or prospective patient cohorts—is required before any modification of treatment intervals or dosing practices can be considered.