Đánh giá ảnh hưởng của xâm nhập mặn đến hạ lưu sông Cả trong bối cảnh biến đổi khí hậu

Abstract

This study has applied the MIKE 11 hydraulic model and GIS remote sensing to sim- ulate the saline intrusion in the downstream of Ca River in two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The calibration and validation results show a high similarity in phase and amplitude of fluctuation be- tween the calculated and observed water levels in the dry season in 2015 and 2016. The results of calibration and validation of salinity concentration at Ben Thuy station show consistency between the observation and simulation based on NSE, RSR and PBIAS. Calculation results of salinity in- trusion under climate change (CC) scenarios show that salinity changes in the future in river branches tend to be more serious. The research results provide an overview of the salinity intrusion in the downstream of the study area to support the planning and management and provide solutions to deal with saline intrusion in the future.