Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia - scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Abstract

The cryosphere in high mountain Asia (HMA) not only sustains the livelihoods of people residing downstream through its capacity to store water but also holds the potential for hazards. One of these hazards, avalanches, so far remains inadequately studied, as the complex relationship between climate and potential triggers is poorly understood due to lack of long-term observations, inaccessibility, severe weather conditions, and financial and logistical constraints. In this study, the available literature was reviewed covering the period from the late 20th century to June 2022 to identify research and societal gaps and propose future directions of research and mitigation strategies. Beyond scientific literature, technical reports, newspapers, social media and other local sources were consulted to compile a comprehensive, open-access and version-controlled database of avalanche events and their associated impacts. Over 681 avalanches with more than 3131 human fatalities were identified in eight countries of the region. Afghanistan has the highest recorded avalanche fatalities (1057), followed by India (952) and Nepal (508). Additionally, 564 people lost their lives while climbing peaks above 4500ĝ€¯mĝ€¯a.s.l., one-third of which were staff employed as guides or porters. This makes it a less deadly hazard than in the less populated European Alps, for example, but with a considerably larger number of people affected who did not voluntarily expose themselves to avalanche risk. Although fatalities are significant, and local long-term impacts of avalanches may be considerable, so far, limited holistic adaptation or mitigation measures exist in the region. These measures generally rely on local and indigenous knowledge adapted to modern technologies. Considering the high impact avalanches have in the region, we suggest to further develop adaptation measures including hazard zonation maps based on datasets of historic events and modelling efforts. This should, however, happen acknowledging the already existing knowledge in the region and in close coordination with communities, local government and civil society stakeholders. More research studies should also be attempted to understand the trends and drivers of avalanches in the region.