Forecasting of Post-Covid-19 Import Value Index in Nigeria using Box-Jenkins Methodology

Abstract

This study employed the Box-Jenkins Methodology otherwise known as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling to model and forecast the series for the period of 2018 to 2030. The results indicated an upward trend with fluctuations while the series was stationary at first difference, i.e the series was I(1) . Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) choice criteria, it was found that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model was better suited to the import value index (IVI) series. Diagnosed check of the model reveals that the error was random, normally distributed and there was no serial correlation, in the same vein, thirteen years forecast was made which shows fluctuation pattern in import value index (IVI) series.