Forecasting Lithium Demand for Electric Ship Batteries in China’s Inland Shipping Under Decarbonization Scenarios

Abstract

As China advances toward its 2060 carbon neutrality goal, the electrification of inland waterway shipping has emerged as a strategic pathway for reducing emissions. This study constructs a 2025–2060 dynamic material flow analysis framework that integrates three core dimensions: (1) all-electric ships (AES) diffusion, estimated via a GDP-elasticity model and carbon emission accounting; (2) battery technology evolution, including lithium iron phosphate and solid-state batteries; and (3) recycling system improvements, incorporating direct recycling, cascade utilization, and metallurgical processes. The research sets up three AES penetration scenarios, two battery technologies, and three recycling technology improvement scenarios, resulting in seven combination scenarios for analysis. Through multi-scenario simulations, it reveals synergistic pathways for resource security and decarbonization goals. Key findings include that to meet carbon reduction targets, AES penetration in inland shipping must reach 25.36% by 2060, corresponding to cumulative new ship constructions of 51.5–79.9k units, with total lithium demand ranging from 49.1–95.9 kt, and recycling potential reaching 5.4–25.2 kt. Results also reveal that under current allocation assumptions, the AES sector may face lithium shortages between 2047 and 2057 unless recycling rates improve or electrification pathways are optimized. The work innovatively links battery tech dynamics and recycling optimization for China’s inland shipping and provides actionable guidance for balancing decarbonization and lithium resource security.