The Influence of Production Quantity, World Cocoa Prices, and Exchange Rates on Indonesian Cocoa Export Volume for the 2008-2023 Period

Abstract

Indonesia's cocoa export volume has fluctuated significantly over the period 2008 to 2023, with an increase in cocoa plantation area dominated by the smallholder sector. However, despite the growth in cocoa production, the proportion of contribution from large private and state-owned plantations remains relatively small, indicating challenges in diversifying cocoa production sources to support export stability. This study aims to determine the effect of total production, world cocoa prices, and exchange rates on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports for the 2008-2023 period. This research is a quantitative and qualitative research using secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics and supporting journals. Data collection using non-behavioral observation methods taken from various references. The data analysis technique uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of this study, namely 1) total production, world cocoa prices and exchange rates simultaneously affect the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports in the international market for the period 2008-2023, 2) total production and exchange rates partially have a positive and significant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports in the international market for the period 2008-2023, 3) world cocoa prices have a negative but insignificant effect on the volume of Indonesian cocoa exports in the international market for the period 2008-2023.