The effect of climate change on the cost of dairy farms in Turkey; Case study of thrace region

Abstract

In Turkey, studies investigating the economic effects of climate change on agriculture are limited and there is little or no research that focuses on livestock production as regards changes in climate. In this context, the main objective of this research is to analyze the impacts of climate change on dairy cattle farms in terms of costs, according to different future scenarios and farms scales. Interviews were conducted with 140 dairy farmers in Thrace Region. To analyze the change in costs, the model developed by Calil et al. (2012) was used. According to the results of cost analysis, it was determined that climate change will lead to a 10-50% cost increase on dairy farms by the year 2044. The heat stress is responsible for 48-71% of the increase in the cost of production, where 24-52% is due to increase in feed prices. Based on the outcome of this research, it was suggested that agricultural extension activities should be carried out in order for farms to get adapted to climate change. Agricultural supports and investment projects should be related to climate change.