Regional changes in surface climate interannual variability for the 21st century from ensembles of global model simulations

Abstract

A regional analysis is carried out of 18 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations of 21st century climate under the IPCC A2 emission scenario to assess regional changes in temperature and precipitation interannual variability. Fourteen regional and seasonal cases are examined. We find substantial warming over all regions and in all models. Global precipitation increases in all models, however regionally we find cases of ensemble average precipitation increases and decreases. Temperature interannual variability, as measured by the standard deviation, decreases in northern hemisphere (NH) cold season mid-latitude cases and increases in mid-latitude warm season and tropical cases. Precipitation interannual variability, as measured by the coefficient of variation, increases in most cases. The regional variability changes exhibit substantial variations across models. Our results are consistent in many instances with previous findings, which adds robustness to our findings. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.