Development of multivariate ordered probit model to understand Household Vehicle Ownership behavior in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou, China

Abstract

With the rapid increase of motorization in China, transitions have taken place in regards to traditional private transportation modes. This paper aims to understand four types of vehicle ownership within a household, including automobile, motorcycle, electric bicycle and human-powered bicycle. This study presents a cross-sectional multivariate ordered probit model, with a composite marginal likelihood estimation approach that accommodates the effects of explanatory variables, and capturing the dependence among the propensity to household vehicle ownership. The sample data are obtained from the residents' household travel survey of Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, in 2015, which can analyze the significant effects of sociodemographic attributes and built environment attributes. Interestingly, the major findings suggest that: (1) The households with higher income tend to own more automobiles, yet the effect is not obvious with a small value of elasticity, which is similar to developed countries. (2) The household education level, which takes a positive effect on automobile ownership, is a more elastic factor than income. (3) The higher population density contributes to less ownership of automobiles and motorcycles, due to traffic congestions and parking challenges. (4) There is a large substitutive relation between automobile and electric bicycle/motorcycle, and the vehicle ownership of electric bicycle/motorcycle and bicycle are mutually promoted, while motorcycle and electric-bicycle are mutually substituted.