Do spatial interactions fuel the climate-conflict vicious cycle? The case of the African continent

Abstract

We propose an analysis of the multiple linkages between violent conflicts, weather-related variables and socio-economic conditions based on an original geo-referenced database covering the entire African continent with a grid resolution of 1° × 1° for the period 1990–2016. We implement a dynamic spatial panel Durbin model that allows us: (1) confirming well-known mechanisms in violent conflicts analysis; (2) assessing the relevance of persistency of violence over time; (3) adding new insights related to the role of spatial relations associated to contagion. In particular, the spatial specification allows us quantifying the contagious effect across space, that persists in a radius of more than 300 km. Weather-related variables seem to play a prominent role in shaping contagion with different strength depending on the temporal horizon adopted. The main implications we derive are twofold: (1) adaptation policies designed for reducing vulnerability of local communities to climate change must be integrated with direct actions for peacekeeping in order to break the persistency of violence over time that is responsible for failures of the adaptation actions themselves; (2) synergies from simultaneous actions developed for different local communities must drive geographical coordination of integrated policies in order to capture the positive elements of cooperation associated to geographical spillovers while breaking violence contagion across neighbours.