Combine performance, draft position and playing position are poor predictors of player career outcomes in the Australian Football League

Abstract

Physical testing-based draft combines are undertaken across various sporting codes to inform talent selection. To determine the explanatory power of the Australian football league (AFL) draft combine, participants drafted between 1999–2016 (n = 1488) were assessed. Testing performance, draft selection order and playing position, AFL matches played, AFL player ranking points and AFL player rating points were collected as career outcomes. Boosted regression tree analysis revealed that position and draft selection order were the most explanatory variables of career outcomes. Linear modelling based on testing results is able to explain 4% of matches played and 3% of in-game performance measures. Each individual combine test explained <2% of the matches played outcome. Draft selection order demonstrated mixed results for career outcomes relative to playing position. For instance, key forwards and draft selection order were observed as a slight negative relationship using the AFL Player Ranking points career outcome measure. These findings indicate that the AFL draft combine is a poor measure for informing talent selection, thus providing minimal utility for the practices investigated in this study.