Forecasting competition for sales of local and national bottled drinking water in madura using fuzzy sugeno method

Abstract

Bottled Drinking Water (AMDK) is processed water, without other food ingredients and food additives, packaged, and safe to drink. AMDK itself which is widely known in the community is national product AMDK. However, local products have emerged to try to compete with national product AMDK. As for local product AMDK which is produced mainly in Madura, the average product is made from Islamic boarding schools. From the level of competition, the idea is emerged for forecasting primarily in the field of sales using the fuzzy Sugeno method. The results obtained from fuzzy Sugeno are turned out to produce a MAPE that the value for local AMDK is 6.4795 and a national AMDK is 2.5353, so that the conclusion about national production is closer to the real value than local AMDK. This study contributes that the predictive value of sales competition is quite accurate based on the MAPE value is below 10. This study provides recommendations to local sellers to make improvements in factors in order to be better than national sellers.