The use of generalized synthetic control method to evaluate air pollution control measures of G20 Hangzhou Summit

Abstract

The traditional campaign-style enforcement in environmental governance has been debated whether its rebound effect is likely to eat away the short-term environmental benefits and subsequently bring about severer pollution. There are methodological challenges in assessing the effect of temporary environmental intervention. By applying the generalized synthetic control method (GSCM), we quantified and characterized the effectiveness of environmental regulations implemented for the G20 Hangzhou Summit held on 4–5 September, 2016. The summit was successful in reducing Air Quality Composite Index by 17.40% (95% CI: 9.53%, 24.60%), 13.30% (95% CI: 4.23%, 21.50%), and 10.09% (95% CI: 2.01%, 17.51%) in the core, strictly-regulated and regulated areas respectively, comparing with the index expected under a “No-G20” scenario during the preparatory period and the summit period (July–September 2016), and the reduction of the levels in specific pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and CO) was also observed. Besides, the environmental benefits lasted for at least 3 months after the summit. This study demonstrates that the pollution control measures during the G20 Hangzhou Summit improved air quality immediately and continuously, and the GSCM provides a useful tool for evaluating the intervention effects of environmental regulations.