Scenario Simulation and Scheme Optimization of Water Ecological Security in Hexi Corridor Based on System Dynamics Model

Abstract

Water ecological security is intricately connected to regional economic development and human survival, exerting a profound influence on regional sustainability. Water ecological security in the study area is a matter of urgency. In this study, the socio-economic, ecological, and water resource data of five cities in the west of the river from 2006 to 2021 are used to construct a dynamic model of the regional water ecological security system and simulate the trend of the regional water ecological security from 2022 to 2035, and the results indicate the following: (1) From 2006 to 2021, Hexi Corridor’s economy exhibited a significant upward trend, while its total population experienced a marked decline. Indicators for the ecological environment system showed notable improvement, whereas those for the water resource system demonstrated a significant downward trend. (2) Spatially, the mean values of system indices in the southeast and northwest regions were higher than those in the central region. (3) Between 2022 and 2035, projections reveal that the total GDP, industrial added value, average sewage discharge, urban green space, and water consumption for ecological purposes will all trend upward. Concurrently, the total population, total water supply, and total water demand are expected to exhibit a continuous decline. (4) The comparative comprehensive scores of the scenario models are as follows: EPS (2.18) > RSS (1.57) > CDS (1.15) > EDS (1.08). This analysis provides valuable insights into the dynamics of water ecological security in the Hexi Corridor and offers critical guidance for sustainable regional development planning.