Climate change-farmers' perception, adaptation and impact on agriculture in the Lakki Marwat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Abstract

One of the most complex problems faced by the world today is climate change. Agriculture in many ways is affected by climate change and has impact for productivity of crops particularly in rainfed areas. Climate change related research remained a poorly investigated area in KP and instant study filled that gap by investigating farmers' perceptions and adaptation about change in climate and impact of change in climate on wheat productivity in Lakki Marwat. A combination of multi-stage sampling and simple random sampling used to select five Union Councils (UCs), one village council from each UC and one village from each village council. Out of 611 households (HHs), 180 head/elders selected through random sampling process were interviewed. The secondary data, spread over 30 years from 1984 to 2013 pertaining to temperature, precipitation, area under cultivation and yield of crops was collected. Analytical models used are Logit Model and ARDL Model. Regarding farmers perceptions, results show that age of farmers, farming experience and education level of the farmers are positively and significantly, except education, associated with perception regarding climate change. However, size of HH, farming types and area under cultivation are negatively associated. Whereas association is insignificant in respect of farming types and area under cultivation. Regarding farmers' adaptation, results show that the coefficient of age of farmers and farming experience are positive and significant. The coefficient of household size, cropping date, mulching and crop varieties were found positive but insignificant while coefficient of intercropping is negative but insignificant. The results pertaining to impact of temperature and precipitation on wheat yield suggest long run relationship among the variables. Temperature is negatively and significantly related. The precipitation is positively and significantly related. Short run relationship implies that around 73% deviations from long-term equilibrium are adjusted every year. Based on objectives of the research study and field findings recommendations offered include; farmers awareness drive to enhance capacity to strengthen local resilience, participation of farming community in formulation of policies, making meteorological information available to farmers, Design research plans to evolve wheat varieties addressing changing climatic challenges, construct water harvesting structures for high efficiency irrigation and further research to estimate range of temperature and precipitation within which crops under study perform better.