Increases of extreme heat-humidity days endanger future populations living in China

Abstract

Changes in heat stress due to climate change affect living and working conditions. A wet-bulb temperature (TW) of 35 °C is identified as the upper physiological limit for human survivability. On the basis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 model simulations, our evaluations show that the daily maximum TW is expected to significantly intensify throughout China and is likely to exceed this critical threshold in some regions by the end of this century, especially under the high emission scenario of the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)5-8.5. The most dangerous hazard from extreme heat-humidity events is concentrated around the most densely populated regions of eastern China as well as the Sichuan basin. Under SSP5-8.5, the significant increase of extreme heat-humidity days with a daily maximum TW exceeding 35 °C results in a large fractional population of approximately 81% being exposed to these extremes in China by the end of this century. This is true for different future warming scenarios, and a population fraction of up to 51% would also be exposed to such extremes even if early mitigation was conducted via SSP1-2.6. Our findings in this study thus have significant implications to ongoing considerations for climate-change policy in China.