Mathematical model of Boltzmann’s sigmoidal equation applicable to the spreading of the coronavirus (Covid-19) waves

Abstract

Currently, investigations are intensively conducted on modeling, forecasting, and studying the dynamic spread of coronavirus (Covid-19) new pandemic. In the present work, the sigmoidal-Boltzmann mathematical model was applied to study the Covid-19 spread in 15 different countries. The cumulative number of infected persons I has been accurately fitted by the sigmoidal-Boltzmann equation (SBE), giving rise to different epidemiological parameters such as the pandemic peak tp, the maximum number of infected persons Imax, and the time of the epidemic stabilization t∞. The time constant relative to the sigmoid Δt (called also the slope factor) was revealed to be the determining parameter which influences all the epidemiological parameters. Empirical laws between the different parameters allowed us to propose a modified sigmoidal-Boltzmann equation describing the spread of the pandemic. The expression of the spread speed Vp was further determined as a function of the sigmoid parameters. This made it possible to assess the maximum speed of spread of the virus Vpmax and to trace the speed profile in each country. In addition, for countries undergoing a second pandemic wave, the cumulative number of infected people I has been successfully adjusted by a double sigmoidal-Boltzmann equation (DSBE) allowing the comparison between the two waves. Finally, the comparison between the maximum virus spread of two waves Vp max 1 and Vp max 2 showed that the intensity of the second wave of Covid-19 is low compared to the first for all the countries studied.