A dynamic nomogram for predicting unfavorable prognosis after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the predictive value of the multiplication of neutrophil and monocyte counts (MNM) in peripheral blood, and develop a new predictive model for the prognosis of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Methods: This is a retrospective analysis that included 2 separate cohorts of patients undergoing endovascular coiling for aSAH. The training cohort consisted of 687 patients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College; the validation cohort consisted of 299 patients from Sun Yat-sen University's Affiliated Jieyang People's Hospital. The training cohort was used to develop 2 models to predict unfavorable prognosis (modified Rankin scale of 3–6 at 3 months): one was based on traditional factors (e.g., age, modified Fisher grade, NIHSS score, and blood glucose), and another model that included traditional factors as well as MNM on admission. Results: In the training cohort, MNM upon admission was independently associated with unfavorable prognosis (odds ratio after adjustment, 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.10). In the validation cohort, the basic model that included only traditional factors had 70.99% sensitivity, 84.36% specificity, and 0.859 (95% CI, 0.817–0.901) area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Adding MNM increased model sensitivity (from 70.99% to 76.48%), specificity (from 84.36% to 88.63%), and overall performance (AUC 0.859 [95% CI, 0.817–0.901] to 0.879 [95% CI, 0.841–0.917]). Interpretation: MNM upon admission is associated with unfavorable prognosis in patients undergoing endovascular embolization for aSAH. The nomogram including MNM is a user-friendly tool to help clinicians quickly predict the outcome of patients with aSAH.