PENYEBAB BANK RUNS DI INDONESIA: BAD LUCK ATAU FUNDAMENTAL?

Abstract

Bank runs and banking crisis has been a global cycling phenomenon both in developed and developing countries. This paper provide comprehensive analysis of the bank run determinant in Indonesia, including the economic fundamental, bank performance and self fulfilling prophecy during the period of 1990-2005, using the dynamic panel estimation of Arrelano-Bond. The Result shows that the self-fulfilling prophecy, bank performance (rentability, non performing loan) and macroeconomic condition (output growth, inflation and real interest rate), determine the bank runs in Indonesia. This conclusion is robust both for the sample period of 1997-1998 and 1990-2005. Klasifikasi JEL: C29, C33, G21Keywords: Bank runs, banking crisis, dynamic panel estimation, Arrelano-Bond, Indonesia