Risks on the Belt and Road in Eurasia: Local Perspectives and Options

Abstract

A binary, geopolitical narrative of a new “Great Game” for power in Central Asia may be too simplistic. It remains unclear what regionalisation trends will become embedded in Central Asia, with the apparent rise of China. The paper examines potential for China's Belt and Road Initiative to build new Eurasian economic interdependence through connectivity infrastructure and to reduce dependency for some actors on Russia. A political risk and grounded theory approach is taken, utilising in-depth interviews with local experts and stakeholders to develop a risk/opportunity framework. Conclusions from the research indicate China is unlikely in the foreseeable future to replace Russia as regional hegemon, but is likely to drive greater economic integration. Empirical investigation of dynamics on the ground - including the spectrum of options available to actors - is recommended for realist understanding of economic and other international connectivity trends across Central Asia.