Effect of Seasonal and Cyclical Variation in Prices of Natural Rubber in India

Abstract

Natural Rubber (NR) an agricultural product is an important raw material in a broad spectrum of industries such as automobile and pharmaceutical. NR sector has its local and global dimensions. Thus the trend and pattern of natural rubber price in India: an, exploratory analysis. Annual average price of natural rubber (NR) in India during the 18 year period from 2000-01 to 2017-18 was analyzed with the objectives of delineating the trend, identifying the different phases and direction of price movement and the contributing factors. Hence, the present study explores the seasonal and cyclical trend in domestic and international prices of natural rubber in India. The month wise seasonal index in domestic and international price of natural rubber was calculated by moving average method. It was lowest in the month of January and November and highest in the month of July and June in domestic and international market respectively. Thus, the farmer could not receive the better price by postponing the sale of produce during the month of September to February to later month of the year. The analysis of cyclical indices in both domestic and international price shows that there is an uneven cycle both in domestic and international market of natural rubber. The NR price in India did not show any significant pattern of consistent movement towards a particular direction in the long run. Keywords: Price; Natural Rubber and Cyclical indices;