Comparing the Atmospheric Responses to Reduced Arctic Sea Ice, a Warmer Ocean, and Increased CO2 and Their Contributions to Projected Change at 28C Global Warming

Abstract

We consider the combined and individual influences of Arctic sea ice loss, sea surface temperature (SST) warming, and the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 on the Northern Hemispheric climate. The surface climate (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and atmospheric circulation responses (e.g., sea level pressure and wind) to these drivers are quantified using simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (for sea ice loss and SST warming) and the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (for increased CO2). We verify the linear additivity of the PAMIP-derived winter responses to sea ice loss and SST change. The responses to SST change are of greater magni- tude than that due to sea ice loss or due to CO2 direct radiative forcing in most seasons and regions, excluding the Arctic. Notably, however, sea ice loss is at least as important as SST change for the winter atmospheric circulation response over the North Atlantic and Siberia. The dynamical responses to sea ice loss and SST change oppose each other in many regions in winter, while the responses to SST and CO2 direct radiative forcing are often opposing in summer. Such opposing re- sponses are less evident for the thermodynamical response. The sum of all three responses reproduces well the spatial pat- terns of change at 28C global warming in winter and autumn in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project projections but overestimates their magnitude.