Bayesian explorations with dice

Abstract

The topic of Bayesian updating is explored using standard and non-standard dice as an intuitive and motivating model. Details of calculating posterior probabilities for a discrete distribution are provided, offering a different view to P-values. This article also includes the stars and bars counting technique, a powerful method of counting that is accessible to students who have been introduced to permutations and combinations. Supportive R code is included throughout, and a Shiny application accompanies the article allowing for an interactive exploration of the topics discussed.