A case report: Challenges in COVID-19 modeling at a public health department

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 public health emergency, the Tulsa Health Department created local models. This was an iterative process, with the focus predicting all infections (including asymptomatic and mild cases that would not meet testing criteria,) and deaths for the Tulsa area. SEIR-type models were utilized. Developing infectious disease models is challenging due to data issues related to validity, and complex interrelated assumptions, and this was exacerbated with the COVID-19 crisis. Directly related to these data challenges were challenges with communicating without spreading misinformation, and being clear about the model limitations.