Estimating Peak Flows in Streams During the Flash Flood Event of 29 October 2024 in Spain: An Empirical Approach

Abstract

The present study focuses on the extraordinary isolated high-level depression event that occurred on 29 October 2024 over the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Spain). The emphasis of the study is on the Turia and Magro river basins and the Albufera of Valencia lagoon basin, with particular attention given to the hydrological implications of the event in these areas. It is an established fact that episodes of intense precipitation give rise to flash floods. This recurrent phenomenon has significant economic and human impacts, and is particularly prominent in the Mediterranean region, including the Valencian Community (Eastern Spain). The estimation of peak flows at key sites in the basins was achieved through the utilization of an empirical methodological approach based on fieldwork to obtain the wetted cross-section of each site of analysis. Utilizing the existent official flow-measuring data network, an estimation was made of the average velocity of the water. The results indicate that flows in several locations exceeded the carrying capacity of the watercourses, leading to substantial flooding and overflows. The maximum estimated peak flow was determined to be 5678 m3 s−1 in the Poyo ephemeral stream and 4198 m3 s−1 in the Magro river. The results were validated using the Manning equation and related stream parameters (such as roughness and slope), obtaining a normalized root mean squared error of 3.62% and normalized mean absolute error of 2.26%. This analysis identified bottlenecks in the hydrographic network and emphasized the necessity to enhance detailed knowledge of the hydraulic capacity of watercourses. This helps with the purpose of flood risk management in the event of extreme future events accentuated by climate change.