Stay Time Prediction for Individual Stay Behavior

Abstract

Stay time is important for understanding people's travel behavior and mobility motivation. In this paper, by leveraging private car trajectory data, we propose a novel systematic approach for implementing stay behavior detection and stay time prediction. Specifically, we first propose a fuzzy logic-based stay detection method for detecting stay behavior in a large-scale private car trajectory dataset. Then, we design a spatiotemporal feature extraction method called clustering and kernel (CaK) by considering the spatial similarity, temporal periodicity and spatiotemporal correlation of stay behavior data. Furthermore, we propose a stay time predictor (STP) based on gradient-boosting regression trees and a long short-term memory network that can estimate the future durations of private car users' stays in various scenarios. We perform extensive experiments based on two real-life trajectory datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the STP achieves a predictive accuracy (specifically, the root-mean-square error) of 123.94 and R2 of 0.893 for stay time prediction of individual stays. This study provides a new perspective for understanding people's stay behavior.