Environmental Impact and Modeling of Petroleum Spills

Abstract

The risks associated with a release of oil posed by potentially polluting wrecks (PPW) span a wide range of probabilities and potential magnitudes for environmental consequences. Even a lay reader will be well aware that following a release of oil, there is great potential for environmental damage and mortality of birds, mammals, and fish. Fisheries and beach closures and localised evacuations may occur to limit the exposure of humans to potential contaminants. The range of socio-economic and ecological impacts can be quite large between releases with the geographic extent and magnitude of effects being extremely variable between releases. In addition, the duration of these effects and changes to populations and ecosystems can range from a few days to years or even decades in some circumstances. This variability necessitates the quantitative assessment of the range of environmental impacts to understand where a release may occur, the environmental conditions at the time of the release, the geographic extent over which it may be transported, and the receptors of interest (e.g., species of concern, shorelines, populated areas) that may be impacted. Computational oil spill models were developed to characterise the movement and behavior of released oil in the environment, while also quantifying the duration of exposure to levels of contamination and their potential for both lethal and sublethal effects.