Mapping monthly population distribution and variation at 1-km resolution across China

Abstract

Fine-grained inner-annual population data are instrumental in climate change response, resource allocation, and epidemic control. However, such data are currently scarce due to the lack of human-related indicators with both high temporal resolution and long-term coverage that can be used in the process of population spatialization. Here, we estimate monthly 1-km gridded population distribution across China in 2015 using time-series mobile phone positioning data. We construct a hybrid downscaling model to map the gridded population by incorporating random forest and area-to-point kriging. The estimated monthly population products appear to capture inner-annual population variations, especially during special periods, such as the festival, holiday, and short-term labor flow period, which are characterized by large-scale population movements. Additionally, compared with census data, the hybrid model-based results obtained exhibit higher consistency than popular global population products across all spatial extents. Our monthly 1-km data products for the population distribution across China in 2015 provide a credible dataset that can be employed in studies aimed at accurate population-dependent decisions.