The social contagion model: Exploring the role of public opinion on the diffusion of antismoking legislation across the American states

Abstract

Scholars have offered two primary explanations for the influence that neighboring states have on policy diffusion: state officials learn by observing the outcomes of policies and states seek an economic advantage over other states. Both models contend that decision making occurs laterally as state officials learn from or react to the policy decisions of other elites; the public has a minor role. I offer an additional explanation, the social contagion model, which suggests that state residents react to neighboring policies by changing their aggregate opinions on that policy. If state opinion becomes supportive, state officials respond by enacting similar policies in the home state or risk being ousted from office. Using both individual and aggregate data on antismoking legislation, I find empirical support for the social contagion model. The results reorient theories of policy diffusion to the public and, consequently, open up new avenues for future research. © 2012 Southern Political Science Association.