Utilization of a Joint Point Regression Model for Predicting Mortality Rates of Common Cancers in Babol City

Abstract

Background: Cancer is a major cause of mortality. Timely information about cancer mortality trends is essential for prioritizing health programs. Aims: This study aims to use a Joint point regression model to predict the mortality rates of the top 10 common cancers in Babol City. Methods: This cross-sectional study considered all registered cancer-related deaths from 2013 to 2021 in the Babol University of Medical Sciences' death registration and classification system. Crude and age-standardized rates and cancer trends were calculated and predicted for the next 5 years, overall and by type of cancer and gender. Results: Over these 9years, 2417 deaths from the 10 common cancers were recorded. We observed an increase in mortality rates with a slope of 12.05% from 2013 to 2016, and a gentler slope of 3.2% from 2016 to 2021. Cancer mortality rates are predicted to increase by 6.43% in the next 5 years without intervention. Detailed analysis indicates that breast cancer will have the highest mortality rate during 2022–2026, rising by 13.6% annually. Predictions based on gender indicate that, breast cancer mortality will increase by 13.6% annually for women. Also, stomach cancer mortality rates will increase by 0.15% in men annually. Conclusion: Cancer mortality in Babol remains a significant public health issue with an increasing trend. Nevertheless, these rising mortality rates require urgent interventions, including cancer prevention programs, increased access to medical services, and improved quality of life.