Modeling of recognition degree of refuge areas by Kyoto City residents in post-earthquake fire event

Abstract

In this study, a model for recognition degree of refuge areas by Kyoto City residents in post-earthquake fire event was developed based on the data obtained by an interview survey. When a large earthquake hits a city in Japan, a tremendous number of evacuees may wander around in urban area escaping from hazards due to conflagrations following the earthquake. We have been developing a simulation model for city evacuation of residents in post-earthquake fire as a tool to evaluate effectiveness of evacuation safety measures. For the further refinement, it is important to accurately estimate evacuation destination of residents considering bias of recognition degree of refuge areas. The interview survey was carried out at 104 spots on busy streets in Kyoto City and replies from 2,267 residents were collected from 1 September 2009 to 30 November 2009. In the interview, the names of open-spaces recognized as evacuation destination were asked having the subjects imagine that conflagrations had taken place in urban area. The governing factors of recognition degree of refuge areas were identified and evacuation destination of residents was formulated by adopting a probabilistic model. © 2011 INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR FIRE SAFETY SCIENCE.