Changing the potential distribution of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) under climate change in Turkey

Abstract

Turkey oak (Q. cerris) is an important species for rehabilitating soils, promoting conservation, and increasing biodiversity. It is also a fire-resistant plant. To predict the potential distribution of this species under climate change is crucial for better understanding the future of ecosystems – in particular Mediterranean ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to generate the potential distribution maps of Turkey oak under current and changing climate in the Sütçüler district located in the translation zone of the Mediterranean region. Classification and regression tree technique (CART) was applied to model the distribution of the species (response data) using current climatic data, parent material, landform types, and topographical position index (explanatory data). Geographic information system (GIS) was used for visualizing current potential distribution of the species. Next, the obtained distribution model was simulated to the digital data of climatic change scenario b2 of IPCC. In this way, changing the potential distribution of Turkey oak along the district was predicted under climate change.