Machine Learning Approach with Harmonized Multinational Datasets for Enhanced Prediction of Hypothyroidism in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Abstract

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a global health concern with increasing prevalence. Comorbid hypothyroidism (HT) exacerbates kidney, cardiac, neurological and other complications of T2D; these risks can be mitigated pharmacologically upon detecting HT. The current HT standard of care (SOC) screening in T2D is infrequent, delaying HT diagnosis and treatment. We present a first-to-date machine learning algorithm (MLA) clinical decision tool to classify patients as low vs. high risk for developing HT comorbid with T2D; the MLA was developed using readily available patient data from harmonized multinational datasets. The MLA was trained on data from NIH All of US (AoU) and UK Biobank (UKBB) (Combined dataset) and achieved a high negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.989 and an AUROC of 0.762 in the Combined dataset, exceeding AUROCs for the models trained on AoU or UKBB alone (0.666 and 0.622, respectively), indicating that increasing dataset diversity for MLA training improves performance. This high-NPV automated tool can supplement SOC screening and rule out T2D patients with low HT risk, allowing for the prioritization of lab-based testing for at-risk patients. Conversely, an MLA output that designates a patient to be at risk of developing HT allows for tailored clinical management and thereby promotes improved patient outcomes.