Demographic trends in less and least developed countries: Convergence or divergence?

Abstract

Many scholars share the assumption that demographic patterns in the world are converging over time. The present study analyses the temporal trends of specific parameters of mortality and fertility—together with certain socio-economic indicators—in 95 less and least developed countries during the period 1990–2015 and discusses whether mortality and fertility trends are convergent or divergent. We apply dynamic factor analysis and cluster analysis of trajectories to macro-data from major international sources. The results show that a large number of countries have a convergent trend in mortality, but sub-Saharan African countries affected by the HIV–AIDS epidemic show non-monotonic temporal trends. Trends in fertility are delayed and unclear and depend on individual attitudes and levels of women’s empowerment. Fifty-two out of the 95 observed countries are collocated in similar mortality and fertility groups. Finally, countries at an advanced economic stage made the best improvements, while the least developed ones retained their deep pre-existing inequalities.