A Multi-Feature Stock Index Forecasting Approach Based on LASSO Feature Selection and Non-Stationary Autoformer

Abstract

The Chinese stock market, one of the largest and most dynamic emerging markets, is characterized by individual investor dominance and strong policy influence, resulting in high volatility and complex dynamics. These distinctive features pose substantial challenges for accurate forecasting. Existing models like RNNs, LSTMs, and Transformers often struggle with non-stationary data and long-term dependencies, limiting their forecasting effectiveness. This study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework integrating the Non-stationary Autoformer (NSAutoformer), LASSO feature selection, and financial sentiment analysis. LASSO selects key features from diverse structured variables, mitigating multicollinearity and enhancing interpretability. Sentiment indices are extracted from investor comments and news articles using an expanded Chinese financial sentiment dictionary, capturing psychological drivers of market behavior. Experimental evaluations on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index show that LASSO-NSAutoformer outperforms the NSAutoformer, reducing MAE by 8.75%. Additional multi-step forecasting and time-window analyses confirm the method’s effectiveness and stability. By integrating multi-source data, feature selection, and sentiment analysis, this framework offers a reliable forecasting approach for investors and researchers in complex financial environments.