A GIS-Based Framework for Evaluating Technical and Economic Prospects of Onshore Wind Energy: Case Study of Poland

Abstract

The rapid global expansion of wind energy underscores the need for robust methods to assess its potential under diverse legal, spatial, and technical conditions. This study presents a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based framework designed to analyze land eligibility and evaluate the techno-economic potential of onshore wind energy. The developed approach combines regulatory, spatial, and technological factors to examine how turbine class and setback distances from residential buildings influence both technical feasibility and economic performance. The framework consists of two modules: (1) a land eligibility and turbine allocation module that accounts for spatial, legal, and technological restrictions and (2) a techno-economic assessment module estimating the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) using a standardized formulation consistent with methodologies adopted by international energy agencies. The method’s applicability is demonstrated through a comprehensive national case study of Poland, highlighting its potential for application in other regions and planning contexts. Results for Poland indicate that 3.11–3.72% of the country’s territory is suitable for turbine installation depending on the scenario. Relaxing setback restrictions (e.g., to 500 m) and deploying Class III (IEC) turbines significantly increase both technical and economic potential, reducing average generation costs by approximately €6/MWh compared to Class II turbines. Across all scenarios, the LCOE remains below €46/MWh. The developed GIS-based framework offers a versatile and transferable tool to support evidence-based national and regional strategies for the sustainable expansion of onshore wind energy.