Modeling the effect of emergency response on domino effects in the coal gasification process by fuzzy hierarchical analysis and Bayesian network

Abstract

Emergency response has an important impact on the mitigation of the domino effects. However, consequence analysis of the domino effect often ignores emergency response due to its complexity and uncertainty. In this paper, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is adopted to evaluate the reliability of emergency response process. On this basis, using Bayesian Network (BN) model, the domino effect under the influence of emergency response is modeled. Based on the total duration of the above-mentioned emergency response process to determine the consequences of domino effect under the action of safety barriers. The application of the approach has been demonstrated by an illustrative case study. The results show that the probability of domino effect is reduced by an order of magnitude when active barriers, passive barriers and emergency response are considered together. This work can provide relevant basis for formulating safety protection measures in chemical process industry.