Prediction of bronchial mucus plugs formation in patients with refractory Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia

Abstract

Background: We aimed to find the relationship between the clinical characteristics and mucus plug formation and developed models to predict mucus plug formation in refractory Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (RMPP) infection. Methods: RMPP patients treated with bronchoscopy were retrospectively enrolled in the study between November 2011 and November 2015. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of mucus plug formation. Results: Of the 173 RMPP patients enrolled, the mucus plug group accounted for 82 (47.4%) cases. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified age, fever duration, C-reactive protein (CRP) and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) as independent risk factors for mucus plug. We assigned one point for age, length of fever and CRP and two points for LDH. Using this predicted score, we identified patients with mucus plug with 71.8% sensitivity and 78.9% specificity. Conclusions: Our predictive models based on demographic and laboratory variables accurately predicted mucus plug formation in initial treatment of patients with RMPP.