Tsunami hazard analysis for Chinese coast from potential earthquakes in the western North Pacific

Abstract

China is a Pacific coastal country, adjacent to the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. The tsunami from the western North Pacific is very dangerous to China because of the short distance. This paper analyzes historical earthquakes and tsunamis in the western North Pacific, and gives the focal parameters characteristics of tsunamigenic earthquakes. Among the analysis results, the reverse fault is the major tsunamigenic fault type, accounting for 73.1%, and the strike-slip faults can also trigger tsunami. Data mining method is used to find useful information behind historical tsunami events. The magnitude of tsunamigenic earthquake is generally greater than 5.3, and the focal depth is usually less than 69 km. Based on the analysis results, this paper assesses the hazard of potential tsunamis using the numerical model. The calculation results indicate that the tsunamis from Ryukyu Trench and Manila Trench are more dangerous, with the tsunami amplitude near China coast reaching 3–5 m. The statistical analysis results and tsunami hazard assessment of this paper can help to determine whether earthquake can trigger tsunami and understand the tsunami hazard, providing scientific reference for tsunami warning and mitigation.