Analisis Rantai Markov dalam Memprediksi Status Pasien COVID-19 di Indonesia

Abstract

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by a new type of corona virus, beta coronavirus. The spread of COVID-19 can occur through human interactions. On March 9, 2020 the WHO (World Health Organization) officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic. This means that COVID-19 has spread widely in the world. Until now, there has not been found a drug to treat COVID-19. So, it is necessary to predict when the COVID-19 pandemic will end. This study discusses the Markov chain method in predicting the status of COVID-19 patients in Indonesia. The prediction of the number of people who are positive for COVID-19, recovered, and die can be one of the government's bases for determining when the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) will end. The results of the study stated that the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia would end at the end of 2020. On December 5, 2020 there were no more people infected with COVID-19 with a cure rate of 29.815% of patients with COVID-19 and a death rate of 3, 5933%.