Predictive regulation and human design

Abstract

Organisms evolving toward greater complexity were selected across aeons to use energy and resources efficiently. Efficiency depended on prediction at every stage: first a clock to predict the planet's statistical regularities; then a brain to predict bodily needs and compute commands that dynamically adjust the flows of energy and nutrients. Predictive regulation (allostasis) frugally matches resources to needs and thus forms a core principle of our design. Humans, reaching a pinnacle of cognitive complexity, eventually produced a device (the steam engine) that converted thermal energy to work and were suddenly awash in resources. Today boundless consumption in many nations challenges all our regulatory mechanisms, causing obesity, diabetes, drug addiction and their sequelae. So far we have sought technical solutions, such as drugs, to treat complex circuits for metabolism, appetites and mood. Here I argue for a different approach which starts by asking: why does our regulatory system, which evolution tuned for small satisfactions, now constantly demand 'more'?