Asian culturally specific predictors in a large-scale land use regression model to predict spatial-temporal variability of ozone concentration

Abstract

This paper developed a land use regression (LUR) model to study the spatial-temporal variability of O3 concentrations in Taiwan, which has typical Asian cultural characteristics with diverse local emission sources. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) data of O3 concentrations from 2000 and 2013 were used to develop this model, while observations from 2014 were used as the external data verification to assess model reliability. The distribution of temples, cemeteries, and crematoriums was included for a potential predictor as an Asian culturally specific source for incense and joss money burning. We used stepwise regression for the LUR model development, and applied 10-fold cross-validation and external data for the verification of model reliability. With the overall model R2 of 0.74 and a 10-fold cross-validated R2 of 0.70, this model presented a mid-high prediction performance level. Moreover, during the stepwise selection procedures, the number of temples, cemeteries, and crematoriums was selected as an important predictor. By using the long-term monitoring data to establish an LUR model with culture specific predictors, this model can better depict O3 concentration variation in Asian areas.