The finance of Mexican households: Analysis with Bayesian networks

Abstract

In today's economy, the well-being of households is considered to be linked mainly to the development of financial markets. The field of household finance analyzes how households use financial instruments to satisfy their needs and achieve objectives. This analysis represents a significant challenge due to scarce statistical information and the interrelation among the variables involved. We follow two aspects: Traditional and behavioral finance. This paper pioneers the use of Bayesian networks in the field. A model measuring the probability of prevalence of financial stability of households in Mexico is used; a baseline result is obtained and then, while generating different scenarios, we discover that credit management and household composition are the most determining variables. These results underscore the importance of promoting different financial education initiatives at different educational levels, modalities, and subsystems.