How Ideas from Ecological Capture-Recapture Models May Inform Multiple Systems Estimation Analyses

Abstract

Abundance estimation, for both human and animal populations, informs policy decisions and population management. Capture-recapture and multiple sources data share a common structure; the population can be partially enumerated and individuals are identifiable. Consequently, the analytical methods were developed simultaneously. However, whilst ecological models have been developed to describe highly complex, biologically realistic scenarios, for example modeling population changes through time and combining different forms of data, multiple systems estimation has changed comparatively less so. In this paper we provide a brief description of the historical development of ecological and epidemiological capture-recapture and discuss the associated underlying differences that have led to model divergence. We identify three key areas where ecological modeling methods may inform and improve multiple systems estimation.