Development and Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based High-Cost Prediction Model Using Health Check-Up Data by the National Health Insurance Service of Korea

Abstract

In this study, socioeconomic, medical treatment, and health check-up data from 2010 to 2017 of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) of Korea were analyzed. This year’s socioeconomic, treatment, and health check-up data are used to develop a predictive model for high medical expenses in the next year. The characteristic of this study is to derive important variables related to the high cost of domestic medical expenses users by using data on health check-up items conducted by the country. In this study, we tried to classify data and evaluate its performance using classification supervised learning algorithms for high-cost medical expense prediction. Supervised learning for predicting high-cost medical expenses was performed using the logistic regression model, random forest, and XGBoost, which have been known to result the best performance and explanatory power among the machine learning algorithms used in previous studies. Our experimental results show that the XGBoost model had the best performance with 77.1% accuracy. The contribution of this study is to identify the variables that affect the prediction of high-cost medical expenses by analyzing the medical bills using the health check-up variables and the Korea Classification Disease (KCD) large group as input variables. Through this study, it was confirmed that musculoskeletal disorders (M) and respiratory diseases (J), which are the most frequently treated diseases, as important KCD disease groups for high-cost prediction in Korea, affect the future high cost prediction. In addition, it was confirmed that malignant neoplasia diseases (C) with high medical cost per treatment are a group of diseases related to high future medical cost prediction. Unlike previous studies, it is the result of analyzing all disease data, so it is expected that the study will be more meaningful when compared with the results of other national health check-up data.